> > Las Vegas to Singapore Real Estate: 2008

Monday, December 8, 2008

Comment on "Don't Buy, Don't Sell"

Photo by R. Phipps Copyrighted all rights reserved





Read the article yourself and then you can decide for yourself if I am close to being right
http://www.straitstimes.com/Money/Story/STIStory_311033.html

Though I have not agree very often to the Straits Times since my arrival, when it occurs I have to make it a big deal.

Today is not that day. Yes this report had a lot to say about when to invest and when not to invest but where were these experts about 6 to 8 months ago? Hind sight is 20/20 is the quote that comes to mind.

My thoughts about investing in real estate are simple. If you have money to invest right now then look for the right deals. First look for the right Location then check the Location again then leave and come back and take a look at the Location again. Once you see it is in the right location then start thinking about the purchase.

Do you want to know where to buy? Send me an email and I will tell you. There are some great deals for those investors coming in the next few months. Times like this only come around about every 20 to 30 years.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Las Vegas to Singapore Real Estate: Signs Singapore Property Market is Slowing

Las Vegas to Singapore Real Estate: Signs Singapore Property Market is Slowing

Signs Singapore Property Market is Slowing

(Singapore) In a recent article by the Business Times published in Singapore, signs of Singapore's slowing property market are evident. With research by URA and DTZ Research, third quarters numbers reflect a continued slow down. A slide in sub-sales and foreign buyers are the first two signs noted. The third sign is the rise in HDB upgraders.



A couple of areas to clarify before we forward: HDB is the Housing Development Board who offers below market homes (condos) to Singapore Citizens and permanent residents. This attributes to Singapore's high home ownership. The URA is the government agency called Urban Redevelopment Authority. They track sales and do most of the planning for growth in Singapore. DTZ is a property consultancy.

DTZ's analysis of caveats for private home purchases shows that total sub-sales of non-landed private homes fell 8 percent to 473 units in Q3 from the previous quarter. Sub sales also accounted for a smaller 13 percent share of purchases of non-landed private homes in Q3, compared with 16 per cent in Q2.

Sub sales of high-end condos/apartments slowed down even more in Q3 2008. The number of sub sale purchases involving units priced at least $1,000 psf fell 24.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter to only 213 transactions, accounting for 45 per cent of overall sub sales of non-landed private homes in Q3, against 54 per cent in Q2 2008.


The number of foreign buyers (including permanent residents) of private homes (both landed and non-landed) slid 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to 903 in Q3. Also, these buyers made up 22 per cent of total private home deals in the quarter, down from 25 per cent in Q2.

Some of the central areas who experienced strong sales throughout the last year and a half saw continued lower numbers. The Sail at Marina Bay got the strongest subsale interest in Q3, with 30 deals (compared with 34 in Q2). The median subsale price for the project slid 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $1,719 psf, following a 14 per cent slide in Q2.
Median subsale prices also fell 3 per cent for Park Infinia at Wee Nam to $1,380 psf, The Esta (slipping 5 per cent to $910 psf) and City Square Residences (down 6 per cent to $960 psf).

The article does a good job giving us the figures but it fails to adequate job of spelling out future trends. It glosses over that it will continue slides but there will be pockets where the numbers will spike. Investors need to be aware that these numbers really give us an indication of what is to come. The trends take about six months to work their way into the buying and selling of property. So I will bet my last dollar, not worth that much these days, that the numbers will be considerably worse by Q2 of 2009. Two steps forward and three steps back for the information forecasting. When the paper relies on an agency (DTZ) for it commentary then of course they will protect their current production. Please disagree with me as I have been watching the trends for three years and it seems to be deeper than every in this hole.

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Recent Headlines--What Do They Mean?


US commercial property sales to fall 70%
(SEATTLE) The value of US commercial real estate sales this year will fall to US$142 billion, 70 per cent less than last year's record US$467 billion, as the economy slows and borrowing costs rise, according to Reis Inc, a New York-based real estate research firm
Occupancy costs fall in S'pore: CBRE
(SINGAPORE) The republic is still one of the most expensive places in the world to do business in, even though office occupancy costs here have dropped, the latest survey by CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) shows.
New York home prices see steep decline
(NEW YORK) The economic crisis is finally crashing New York's real estate party, forcing the city's residents to start sharing the rest of the country's pain.
HK's mortgage loans drop 40% in October
(HONG KONG) Hong Kong mortgage loans fell for a third month in October as banks tightened lending amid an economic slowdown and a freeze in global credit.
Frankfurt office property market seen softening
(FRANKFURT) The office property market in Frankfurt, Germany's banking capital, looks set to soften but is likely to hold up better than London, Europe's top financial centre, mainly because fewer bankers are losing their jobs.
Abu Dhabi moves to revive housing market
(ABU DHABI) Abu Dhabi deepened efforts to stave off economic damage from the credit crisis yesterday, launching a government- backed lender to revive the housing market as major Dubai developers were reported to halt sales.
Sellers slash asking prices for homes in UK
(LONDON) Increasingly desperate sellers slashed asking prices for homes in England and Wales by 2.9 per cent in November, pushing them 7.1 per cent below their level a year ago, a survey showed yesterday.
More steps to stimulate China market on the cards
(BEIJING) China is likely to roll out more measures before long to stimulate demand for housing, but recovery in the all-important property market is unlikely for another year.

The financial melt down that started as a ripple in the US has roared across the oceans to all parts. What does this mean? Are we near the bottom? How long will this last?

Meaning is very straight forward. We are all reaping a whirlwind of hurt that was the result of blind profit taking. The following analogy came to mind. Picture the Hoover Dam and several people at different parts of the dam. This Hoover Dam is not made of stone but is made of Gold. Each person there is picking at the dam with glee as large chunks come off. Even when water starts to come out the people just move to other areas. Well, you can guess what happens.

Now that the water is flooding and drowning some, everyone is complaining about what has occurred. Each person that was on the dam is blaming the guy with the biggest shovel---the US.

How long is this going to last? This is the Great Depression of our time. We may not experience long lines of people without jobs, waiting to get food but the younger generation will be talking about the devastation this melt down has caused. Just like my grandmother who lived through the depression, she never ate rice as an adult. Mainly because as a child she only had rice to eat so she hated it as an adult. We may see things turn around when people start to feel safe again. My guess is about 2 or more years. In some areas it could be longer.

Are we at the bottom? Is it much farther now? Not far now. We are closer to the bottom then we are to the top. I wonder how this will affect how we look at the world in 5 years or 10 years.
Lets say we are at the bottom now. Is that good? Does it take a severe problem for us to remember it longer than a few months. 9-11 is now a distant memory even as India is battle their own terrorist attack in Mumbai. I bet there is a sign of relief in the US that is not them but the wounds have scarred over from 9-11 and we soon put it behind us. If we manage to get out of this financial hole, do we soon forget as our refrigerator is filled and our car has a full tank of gas?

Human nature is a survival instinct.

For Las Vegas casinos, the chips are down

Business Times - 28 Nov 2008

For Las Vegas casinos, the chips are down
Debt-laden casinos offer discounts to draw cash-strapped consumers

(LOS ANGELES) Las Vegas casino operators, faced with heavy debt loads and dwindling business prospects, have begun to reshuffle their offerings to appeal to cash-strapped consumers. That will mean even thinner bottom lines for the once high-flying companies.
Las Vegas became famous over the past several years for luxury hotel suites, celebrity-chef restaurants and high-end shopping, but the sharp downturn in consumer spending has refocused attention on the need to rein in prices.

'American consumers are in a bit of a bunker mentality,' said Michael French, head of PricewaterhouseCoopers gaming advisory practice. 'Casino operators are going to have to be very creative in their approach. (They) are going to make less money than in the past.'
Current bargains include rates below US$60 a night for four-star properties in Las Vegas like MGM's New York New York or Mirage, where it was tough to find a room below US$200 a year ago. According to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, the average citywide daily room rate fell 20 per cent in September alone.

On top of that, MGM is also offering an additional 20 per cent price cut on most merchandise at its stores over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Through the end of the year, Harrah's Entertainment is giving new members of its loyalty programme a US$100 credit for playing the slot machines.

'The risk is that you start to train customers to expect discounts,' said KeyBanc gaming industry analyst Dennis Forst. 'It's like the McDonald's dollar menu - once they started it, they couldn't get rid of it.'

Casino companies have been slammed by the combination of weak demand for gambling and a lack of credit to fuel ambitious expansion plans. Shares of companies like Las Vegas Sands Corp and MGM Mirage have fallen 97 per cent and 87 per cent, respectively, from 52-week highs set last December.
High-cost or earnings-diluting financing - like a US$1 billion cash infusion from Sands' chief executive, Sheldon Adelson - has been used to raise capital in order to finish projects already under way.

Development plans have been shelved indefinitely - even partially built projects like Boyd Gaming's US$4.8 billion Echelon on the Las Vegas Strip have been halted.
'After 2009 there will be virtually no new supply for five years, maybe longer,' Mr Forst said.
But before then several new luxury resorts will debut on the Strip, including Wynn Resorts's Encore in December and MGM's massive CityCenter complex late next year. That will put further pressure on room rates, particularly for similar-strata properties like Wynn, MGM's Bellagio and Sands' Palazzo and Venetian resorts.

'I do believe people who have started significant projects would be wise to rethink the broader market,' Mr French said.
Las Vegas visitor volume fell by about 2.4 per cent through the first nine months of this year, but the year-on-year drop was more than 10 per cent for September alone, according to the city's convention bureau. The average hotel occupancy level fell to 88.6 per cent in September from 94.2 per cent in the same month a year earlier.

'Most operators will need to resize and reposition their product to react to a recalibrated consumer,' Deutsche Bank debt analyst Andrew Zarnett said in a research note.
He estimated that over the past three years, Las Vegas operators have spent more than US$6 billion on new projects - at financing priced well below current market levels which will eventually have to be refinanced, likely at a higher cost\. \-- Reuters

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Is this the End? Singapore Property Going Down?

Singapore property prices are headed down. Since I arrived in Jan 08, I saw signs that indicated that the market had gone through the same steep climb that the US market had gone through. Singapore developers sold whole projects within hours of launching. Buyers were on fire and sellers were salivating.

For the past few years Singapore property market mirrored the market increase the US experienced in all its' major cities during 2003 to 2006. Here the real climb began at the end of 2005 and continued until end of 2007.

When I arrived in January 2008, I spoke to several agents who would tell me that the Singapore market could never be affected by a downturn in the US. Well, eleven months passed and two declining quarterly reports later, we finally get the following report from the Straits Times. Read and please comment:

Source: Straits Times
Nov 27, 2008

Mah sees softening of property prices
Future movements will depend on how industry adjusts to conditions
By Michelle Tay

PROPERTY prices will inevitably soften and demand will weaken amid slower economic growth, National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said yesterday.
Private housing prices fell 2.4 per cent in the third quarter, and further price movements will 'depend on the severity of the economic slowdown'.
Mr Mah was speaking at the 49th anniversary dinner of the Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (Redas) at the Shangri-La Hotel.
He said future price movements will also depend on the 'ability of the industry to make adjustments in response to the changes in economic conditions'.
Meanwhile, Mr Simon Cheong, Redas president and chief executive of upscale residential developer SC Global Developments, said he expects construction prices to ease off with the trend of falling oil prices and easing inflation.
'Current pressure on construction services (will) begin to moderate once the lag in demand kicks in with a slowdown in new commitments by developers,' he said.
Mr Mah also addressed recent moves by Redas to present market analysts with other sources of market data after they had drawn bearish conclusions about the industry recently.
Redas had said the analysts' findings were based on official numbers from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), which they felt are too general. Reports said the industry body met property analysts from local and foreign research firms two weeks ago to advise them that URA data may not give an accurate picture of specific sections of the market.
Mr Mah said the Government has a vital role in guarding against 'irrational market behaviour, such as excessive speculation, that is not in sync with economic fundamentals', to ensure the long-term stability and smooth functioning of the property market.
Mr Cheong agreed: 'The market is at best currently fragile and nervous. Market stability is important to prevent a widespread decimation of asset values...Redas will do its best to work closely with the Government to provide timely market feedback to facilitate a timely and effective response that the property market needs.'
But there are limits to what the Government can and should do, said Mr Mah. For one thing, it cannot work against market forces and try to prop up property prices artificially.
Mr Mah explained: 'Such efforts are not sustainable and will not be beneficial to the health of the property market in the long run. Any measure seen to be knee-jerk or excessive might even weigh market sentiment down further...It is in our interest to ensure that the property prices move in line with economic fundamentals as it affects home ownership, asset values, retirement savings and other sectors of the economy.'
But Mr Cheong said: 'Only with confidence will demand return to the market.' He advised Redas members to 'take this opportunity to do our house cleaning, improve our product and get ready for the next upturn'.
'Pricing alone does not lead to sales volume. Sentiment and confidence lead to sales volume.'
michtay@sph.com.sg
ON GUARD
'We cannot work against market forces and try to prop up property prices artificially...It is in our interest to ensure that the property prices move in line with economic fundamentals as it affects home ownership, asset values, retirement savings and other sectors of the economy.'
Minister Mah Bow Tan

Monday, November 24, 2008

Global Business in Real Estate

CULTURALLY CORRECT
Words Matter
In early November media outlets worldwide, including the Associated Press and BBC News, reported on the Bournemouth Council's "plain language" policy, which lists 19 Latin words and phrases to be avoided in official documents, e.g., bona fide or ad hoc, and suggested replacements to minimize confusion. Bournemouth is a town of 170,000 on England's south coast. The news was reported as a "ban," riling language aficionados outraged by what was equated by some as "the linguistic equivalent of ethnic cleansing." The Bouremouth Council countered inaccurate reporting, stating there had been no "banning" of words or phrases; only advice to staff to encourage "plain, appropriate and easily understood language." Much ado about nothing? Perhaps not. There's a lesson here for REALTORS® working with buyers and sellers for whom English is not a first language. Review your contracts to identify words and phrases that may not be easily understood. If appropriate, change them to be more clear. If legal council requires the language to remain as is, develop a "reader's guide" to the contract to spell out more clear definitions and/or to provide examples for key terms. If you deal frequently with customers speaking one or two languages other than English, have your contracts professionally translated.


Vietnam: A Market to Watch


In May Vietnam's government passed a resolution (effective January 1, 2009) that permits foreign individuals and organizations who invest directly in the country and those hired as executives by Vietnamese or foreign-invested enterprises to purchase and own apartments in Vietnam. The legislation will be implemented on a trial basis for five years. Read about specific opportunities and limitations of the law. Many Americans know little about this country beyond war images from the 1960s and 1970s. In 2005 NAR published an article on the Vietnamese real estate market that highlights the dramatic changes in the market economy since the Vietnam War. Even since the 2005 article, the country has attracted significant foreign investment. The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) reports a GDP growth rate of 8.23% in 2006 and 8.4% in 2007. While not immune to the current economic crisis and realizing a slowed growth rate for 2008 with GDP projected at 6.5 - 7%, MPI projects a stabilizing economy in 2009 and to regain growth impetus in 2010. REALTORS® working with investors with an eye on Asia will have greater opportunities come January 1. Learn more about this growing market, including tips for conducting business.

Source: NAR International Newsletter

International Real Estate Investment News

FOREIGN INVESTMENT
Buying into the USA
The combination of tighter immigration standards and an excess of real estate inventory provides a win-win opportunity for the United States and for individuals seeking to immigrate here. US-Immigration-Explained.com reports a recent increase in L-1 and E-2 visa inquiries; two options for U.S. immigration related to investments. The E-2 visa pertains to persons involved in non-import/export investments, including real estate. As there is no dollar limit (although there are strict requirements), the E-2 visa provides opportunities for those able to make an investment of as little as $100,000. The L-1 visa requires one to invest in a branch, subsidiary, or affiliate of their company. The main requirement, therefore, is that the foreign person must have owned or been a manager, executive, or person with specialized knowledge of a firm abroad. (A third, the EB5, has dropped in popularity as it requires an investment of half million plus hiring requirements, which is less attractive in the current economy.) Foreigners with the resources and the desire are investing their much-needed equity into U.S. real estate and, in turn, obtaining investor visas. Overall, this may be very good for the U.S. Outside investment in the real estate market will remove excess inventory from the markets, causing the demand-supply curve to favor higher prices and a return to higher valuations.

Two sites up for sale amid weak market

-- PHOTO: URBAN REDEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY

Nov 20, 2008
Two sites up for sale amid weak market
THE Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) is testing the waters by offering two 99-year leasehold sites - one residential and one commercial-residential - for sale.
The sites have been placed on the reserve list, meaning they will be tendered out only if developers indicate sufficient interest.
However, property consultants doubt they will attract much, if any, interest from developers, given the weak market.
Earlier this week, monthly URA data showed that developers managed to sell just 112 units last month, a level comparable to the Sars period in 2003. It also showed that about 50 home buyers did not complete deals last month.
The first site, at Dakota Crescent, is for a residential project with a gross floor area of 647,599 sq ft. It is near the future Singapore Sports Hub and upcoming Dakota MRT station.
The second, at Seletar Road, is for a mixed commercial and residential development with a gross floor area of 226,042 sq ft. It is in a residential area at Seletar Hills near the future Seletar Aerospace Park.
Early this month, the Government cancelled two of three tenders of confirmed sites for the rest of the year. A tender for an executive condo in Punggol went ahead, but this site attracted no bids. With the market hit by the global financial crisis, developers are taking a breather from land banking, said a consultant.
'The current cautious mood and slow sale activity in the residential market have diminished developers' appetite for development sites,' said Mr Nicholas Mak, Knight Frank's director of research and consultancy.
He said the chances of developers expressing interest to trigger the launch of Dakota Crescent are slim, despite its good location.
He estimates the launch price for a proposed development with up to 550 units at Dakota Crescent at $650 to $680 per sq ft (psf), or a land price of roughly between $170 and $220 psf per plot ratio. The Seletar plot, he said, is estimated at $120 to $150 psf per plot ratio. A condo there could fetch prices of $530 to $570 psf if launched next year and beyond, said Mr Mak.
JOYCE TEO
Source: Straits times

An Inside Story for City Center



Nov. 23, 2008Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal
THE STRIP: INSIDE CITYCENTER
Worker's-eye perspective from MGM Mirage's $9.1 billion project
By TONY ILLIA BUSINESS PRESS

My first work day at CityCenter -- the largest privately financed project in U.S. history -- starts in the pitch black hour of 4:30 a.m. It's still crisp and cool outside, eerily quiet and calm, when a crush of cars converge onto Dean Martin Drive for the 6 a.m. shift change. CityCenter has 8,182 people working three shifts, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Construction trades must arrive an hour early to combat gridlock traffic along the single-lane job site access road. An 11-story, 7,200-space employee garage was one of CityCenter's first completed project components. But spaces fill fast, since the garage is also shared with Bellagio resort employees. Latecomers must use one of three remote overflow parking lots that require a short shuttle trip or long walk. Many workers ride motorbikes, zipping perilously in between car lanes, for superspeedy travel times.
Upon arrival, new hires are corralled into a mandatory two-hour orientation held inside a makeshift classroom in the employee garage basement. A safety trainer from Perini Building Co., the project's general contractor, leads the discussion.
It feels like the first day of school. There's excited talk and off-color jokes, old friends and nervous glances. People separate into groups: Ironworkers sit with one another; carpenters find seats side by side; and Spanish-speaking laborers cluster together. The room fills up with 70 men in their 30s, 40s and 50s. They form a loose tribe that shares a collective construction culture. They're similarly outfitted in blue denim jeans and cotton T-shirts, wearing goatees and handlebar mustaches, with tattooed arms, sunburnt skin and heavy leather boots. Everyone comes equipped with plastic lunch coolers and well-worn hardhats covered in stickers of employers, previous projects and certifications. Stickers serve as merit badges narrating a worker's personal history and experience level.
Andy Campbell, a former paramedic, delivers the orientation speech. Everything is translated into Spanish.
"A lot of people are talking smack about this project," Campbell said in a combative tone. "We are doing our best to remove the knuckleheads to make it as safe as possible."
Everyone gets employment paperwork. It, too, is translated into Spanish. Specific instructions are delivered for proper completion. The project's no tolerance policies are explained. Alcohol and drugs are prohibited as is graffiti, horseplay, scuffling, wrestling, running and failure to report accidents. Everyone must sign a legal waiver stating they understand the policies and the consequences of not following them.
Violating any item can result in immediate termination, a lifetime ban from MGM Mirage projects and a minimum one-year suspension from any Perini job. A stack of revoked work cards, including those from superintendents and managers, is piled high at the front of the room to underscore the point. The talk emphasizes workers' responsibility for their own safety and welfare and the safety and welfare of those around them.
"A foreman or project manager oversees at least 30 people," Campbell said. "They aren't standing over us like an umpire watching every move we make."
An average CityCenter journeyman makes $80,000 a year, which is more than many college graduates earn. An often-repeated message is that project officials want workers to earn fat paychecks and live to spend them. A souring economy, rising unemployment and looming holidays are other touchstones used to encourage worker safety and productivity.
"Is it worth losing your job?" asks Campbell, who gives the same orientation speech once a day to groups averaging 100 or more. "Communicate with each other, work together and we'll get this job done."
New hires are shown the sprawling job site layout, including MGM Mirage's office building, dubbed "The White House" by workers; it's strictly off limits for field personnel. Perini's building is called the "Pentagon" for its warlike project planning and strategizing, while its management offices are referred to as "The West Wing" or brain center of CityCenter's construction operations.
The 76-acre property between the Bellagio and Monte Carlo hotel-casinos is a byzantine complex of big and small concurrent building projects. CityCenter is divided into three large blocks, each with its own managers, estimators and supervisors. A friendly but fierce rivalry exists between block teams, each vying for bragging rights and racing against one another to finish schedule milestones. Roughly 800 buggy carts help move supervisors around the job site. Cart parking is a huge issue, as is unauthorized cart use. Some drivers use a "club," or steering-wheel lock device, to deter others from "borrowing" their parked carts.
After orientation, a single-file line forms for breath and urine drug and alcohol tests conducted inside an adjacent plywood box. Next, workers are shepherded into a classroom for 10 hours of required federal safety training that takes place over two days.
CityCenter recorded six deaths in 16 months, earning it the grisly nickname: "CityCemetery." The owner and contractor, as a result, required me to sign legal waivers and provide a $3 million certificate of liability insurance before setting foot on site.
On June 2, workers picketed in protest of unsafe working conditions. The 24-hour strike resulted in Occupational Safety and Heath Administration 10-hour safety training for everyone on site.
"We didn't bat an eye at the idea," said W. Shelton Grantham, Perini's vice president of field operations. "It's a proactive way to make sure everyone goes home at night."
Yet the pickets thrust CityCenter into an unseemly spotlight. Some saw them as a politically motivated union ploy, a naked grab for public attention showcasing organized labor's strength, despite an employer-union safety training accord having been reached before the event. But both sides are happy now. Perini has since increased its safety staff to 34 people, while mandating that its subcontractors have at least one safety professional for every 40 employees.
Since the agreement, all new hires must provide OSHA 10 cards, which are good for life, or undergo on-site training. The average employer cost for the training is $500 per person. Yet, only 15 percent of CityCenter's work force now has OSHA 10 training.
Although new hires are immediately processed, it's much harder to find and train existing employees, many of whom hail from out of state and were on site before the union pact. Perini has since hired 14 trainers and created seven classrooms to get everyone up to speed. Unions are also helping train their own.
But who foots the bill?
Perini is paying for all of its employees; its subcontractors, which number in the hundreds, must pay for their staff. Many subcontractors are squawking at the expense and lost production time. The price for OHSA 10 safety training will likely result in a $51.5 million change order, Grantham predicts.
"We spoke to MGM about it," he said. "They haven't paid us yet. But they haven't said 'no' either."
So far, OSHA 10 may not be paying dividends. One safety official who asked to remain anonymous said it hasn't made any noticeable difference on site. A "lost work-time" project board inside the Pentagon confirms as much. The Mandarin Oriental condo-hotel tower, for example, had only gone three days without a recordable accident during my visit. The Aria tower, by contrast, had 25 days without an incident.
However, it's important to put the numbers in perspective. CityCenter is like no other project. Its construction payroll is $3.125 million a day. The job has recorded 24 million man-hours of work thus far. Incident numbers, when examined in context, drop to around the state average.
Workers seem happy about the training and the raised safety awareness. My OSHA 10 class consists of 40 or so people who are electricians, pipefitters, concrete finishers and operating engineers. Everyone stands, states his name, profession and years in Las Vegas. Workers hail from everywhere: Texas, Illinois, Florida and California; there's even a guy from England. The program covers one safety topic per hour, including scaffolding and confined spaces, materials handling and fall protection, among other things. Our instructors, who rotate every few hours, share personal anecdotes and job-site horror stories about friends and family members losing a finger, chopping off a toe, or falling to their deaths. The stories create a somber, emotionally-charged setting inside the classroom.
"This is a crapshoot out here," said Kim Murray, a local operating engineer. "One guy might fall off a 12-foot ladder and live, while another might fall and die."
Construction workers routinely risk life and limb doing their job, performing physically demanding labor under often uncomfortable conditions. Job sites are inherently fluid environments that change daily, even hourly. Workers must remain focused and aware of their surroundings and the people and heavy machinery around them. Yet workers surprisingly blame fellow worker missteps for mistakes and accidents.
"I think this is a damn good idea," Trent Vanoostendorp, a 20-year veteran plumber and pipefitter, said of the OSHA 10 training. "People take shortcuts, or they're trying to be heroes and rush work. It's your attitude that makes you safe."
Each OSHA 10 section features a simple multiple-choice test answered together as a group. By day two, classmates are bonding. First-day jitters are gone as guys kid one another and swap job-site stories. Many of them clearly aren't accustomed to sitting still in a classroom for 10 hours. It's not a bookish crowd. So instructors provide intermittent breaks, which many of them use to smoke, make cell phone calls or stretch out and rest for 10 minutes.
When training concludes, workers receive their OSHA 10 cards, enabling them to attain job-site badges. Security personnel check the badges when workers enter and exit the site. All workers must wear the badges, reflective safety vests, hardhats and protective eyewear, at all times while at CityCenter.
By day three, work begins for new hires. I meet Mike Janowski, a Chicago-native Perini superintendent, who takes me atop CityCenter's highest point -- the 600-foot-tall Aria hotel tower. We travel along the building's outer edge inside a mesh metal cage called a man-hoist that operates via a counterweight system.
The 5.9-million-square-foot high-rise is the development's crown jewel -- its largest and most prominent building. The view atop the 61-story, 4,004-room Aria is breathtaking, providing a powerful view of CityCenter's kinetic job site. Janowski excitedly shows me around his project, quoting stats and numbers, like someone who has lived the job. He's proud of the achievement, and rightly so. The soaring glass skyscraper is designed by architect Cesar Pelli, who also created the Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, which held the world's tallest building title from 1998 to 2004. Aria will require 245,000 cubic yards of concrete and 1,700 construction workers to complete.
As we slowly return to ground level, I'm taken aback by CityCenter's boldness, complexity and size. The seven-building, 19 million-square foot complex is the equivalent of nine Empire State buildings going up simultaneously, or 324 football fields laid end to end. And, remarkably, the project is scheduled to finish on time in December 2009.
I give my thanks, say my short goodbyes to my new friends, and make the dusty walk back to my car. So I make it home safe and sound that day, which is the true construction worker's motto.
This story first appeared in the Business Press. Contact Tony Illia at 702-303-5699 or tonyillia@aol.com.
CITYCENTER WORK IS BROKEN INTO THREE BLOCKS:

BLOCK A•Aria tower: 600-foot-tall, 4,000-room hotel tower•Aria podium: a 2.8 million-square-foot low-rise containing casino space, restaurants, spa and fitness center, pool and 1,750-space parking garage•Convention center: 655,000-square-foot, multilevel convention and meeting area•Showroom: 1,800-seat, 170,000-square-foot showroom featuring Cirque du Soleil show•Sinatra Drive garage: An 11-story, 7,200-space parking garage


BLOCK B•Vdara condo-hotel: 57-story, 1,543-room condo-hotel tower•Central plant: 55,000-square-foot central plant housing all mechanical and electrical services for CityCenter property•Harmon overpass: New elevated road structure, pedestrian walkway and elevator providing access from Harmon Avenue throughout CityCenter


BLOCK C•Mandarin Oriental: 47-story tower with a 400-room hotel and 227 condominiums•Harmon Hotel, Spa & Residences: a 47-story tower with 400-room hotel and 240 condominiums•Garage 5: 10-story, 2,500-space self-parking garage and elevated pedestrian bridge over Las Vegas Boulevard and Harmon Avenue•The Crystals: 645,000-square-foot retail district with shops, entertainment, restaurants and people-mover station•


Veer Towers: two 37-story condominium towers with 670 residences•Garage 6: 630,000-square-foot, 1,200-space below-grade parking garage under retail and residences with a loading dock, utility tunnel and taxi staging area

Friday, October 31, 2008

Things I Love about Singapore


Whenever I go to a new city, I find you must live there for a while before you can actually say for certain you like it.  Visiting is totally different compared to living in a city.  I compare it to dating as opposed to living with each other.  When you are dating, there are sparks that blind you so you overlook the details.  It is not until you get that first place together that you magnifying glass comes out and you really see how things are going to be.

Singapore, up until January 2008, has been my date for the past several years.  I've made many visits but I did not stay longer than a month.  I had some good times and felt I was ready to make that next step.  So earlier this year, I made the move.  

I would like to say everything has been perfect but like any new relationship there has been the occasional bump and even all out brawl but I haven't left nor has Singapore.  My process here is to post my positives of Singapore because like my mother told me if you don't have anything positive to say keep it to yourself.  I will follow her advice for now but wait till she is not looking and I will post my list of things I don't particularly enjoy about Singapore later. So here they are in no particular order but how they came out of my head: 

  1. Making Time to Eat: Singapore is awash with small stalls called "hawker centers" so you are never far from a small, fast cooked meal.  Most food is delivered within a few minutes of ordering.  It rivals fast food but it is freshly cooked most of the time.  
  2. Family time: Singapore and its people are always busy doing something but no matter what time it is, the people here manage to see their families and eat a meal together.
  3. Buses, MRT and Taxis:  Singapore has one of the best public systems for getting around.  There are bus stops everywhere and if your not taking a bus then take the Subway called the MRT.  When your in a hurry then a taxi is the next best thing.  It is a little more expensive then the first two but well worth the quickness and sometimes the conversation is better than a tour guide, therapist or financial consultant.
  4. Green Green Green:  Singapore is by far one of the Greenest cities I have lived in.  I love to drive on the expressways because the trees form a natural tunnel that lets in patches of sky.  Some roads are so scenic that I could miss my turn if not for my GPS.
  5. Driving on the Right Side:  At first I really disliked driving here but as time goes by I am getting the hang of it.  I think it is easier to use your mirrors while driving from the right.  Something about being right eyes dominate helps you see the side mirrors.
  6. Shopping, Shopping:  Singapore has enough malls in such a small city/nation that I don't think I will ever run out of places to go on a hot, humid day.  Plus because all the major, high end brands are coveted here, you get exposed to a variety that you don't get in most cities.  If you get a chance to visit then check out Vivo City.  If you don't get lost, you will be able to tell others all about it.
This is a pretty short list but I will add more as time goes on.  I have only just begun the living together stage so I am sure there will be more epifanies in the future.  I just know that there is more to Singapore then just the Merlion and F1.

Friday, August 8, 2008

Channelnewsasia.com

Removal of property fee guidelines unlikely to have deep impact

Channelnewsasia.com

I really did not see the point for setting a mandatory commission amount.  But I believe the attempt had the best intentions.  The IEA represents about 7% of the agent population here in Singapore.  In an attempt to organize and standardize the training that agents receive and to put in place for the public to voice complaints, the IEA came onto the scene.  They have not been very successful because the major brokers like Propnex and DTZ decided not to join after they saw the IEA going in a direction that they did not desire.

This recent strike down of the Fee Guidelines is just another nail in the coffin of ineffectiveness of the IEA.  As I stated above, their intentions are in the right place but I think they lack the backing of the agency that could set things right.  This is completely my opinion.  The opinion being expressed is that of the blogger and does not reflect on his family, friends or future business partners. 

The only way the agents here in Singapore and the public can hope to see change is if the Singapore Government steps in to set the standards.  Right now most agents are know as "Cowboys".  If I decided to rope cattle then it would be appropriate but I definitely don't want a " Cowboy" to help me purchase a $800,000 SDG condo!!  Why "Cowboys" ,  it is easy, Any Auntie and Uncle can be an agent.  Just do down to your nearest broker and tell them you have some deals to do and "poof" your an agent. Now most agencies have their own training but from my limited contact with agents here, they lack something very important: ACCOUNTABILITY.  It really doesn't matter how much or how little training the agents have because if they do something wrong there is little a person can do short of going to court.  And even if the agent is a bad apple, they can just go to a new company and work there without any reprecussions. 

My sister in law recently received a license to be a tour guide.  She had to take over 100 plus hours of education and then take an exam that is not the easiest to pass.  What I think is bizarre is that the a Tour Guide needs a license but an agent does not?  I guess dealing with the biggest purchase in most people's lives is really not as important as taking some tourists on a guided tour of Clark Quay or the Merlion.  Again this is only my opinion. 

Another point that I thought was funny came from Chris Koh, director of Dennis Wee Group.  He described a possible scenario that would see an agent pocketing a huge commission on a very unscrupulous business tactic.  Here the phrase "Buyer Beware" is often quoted.   Add in the Seller and fellow agents as well because there are no rules for "Cowboys".

Singapore is usually on the cutting edge of everything but this part of their model is sadly lacking.  Regulation done in a proper way to promote higher ethics and standardization of the process is where I see their direction heading.

Friday, July 25, 2008

Finally, Singapore May See The Problems it....

bishan view edOn Thursday, July 24th, An article was publish in a local paper called Today. (Goto http://www.todayonline.com/pdf_main.asp?pubdate=20080724 ) The title of the article was "Oversupply Worse than Expected?" by Colin Tan.   Colin is head of research at Chesterton International .  And by far the bravest person to write anything about the possible Bubble in Singapore. 

I have been in Singapore since Jan 08 and I saw many of the same signs that my recent home of Las Vegas had shown.  Relatively quite prices and growth with the occasional twitch of something new would get hearts racing a bit.  Then all of a sudden, Boom, Bang and a Pop!!!, the lines started to form at builders.  They started to say they were sold out and had to make more.  People started to hear stories of their friend who just sold their home 10k above what they had asked for because two buyers came at the same time.  In rapid succession the lines double then triple and so did the asking price.  I once look at a home in the Southwest part of Las Vegas that was small with no yard.  They were asking $95 psf (per sq ft).  I thought it was high but during the Frenzy that same home went to $225 psf.  With current loans parameters, I could no longer buy a home.  Thank goodness the Banks thought of new inventive ways to lend money. (this is sarcasm for those who don't know me)

Singapore went through this same period but by my calculation and divinations, their wave started about a year and a half to two years after Las Vegas.  So what am I trying to say.....( dramatic pause insert music from your own memories)... "Singapore's Bubble is Coming".  I spoke to many agents here that all say the Singapore is different and I hope they are right.  But now I have some support.  Thank you Colin Tan.  How far will it drop?  We can only guess at this point, but all the signs are there.  I have seen the problems that arose in many areas of Las Vegas.  I can only hope there won't be the same carnage here in Singapore.

Friday, June 27, 2008

Singapore Property Market

Yesterday, in the Straits Times, an article appeared discussing a new report by "Citi" that is saying the over supply reported by others will not happen. Basically, I would caution anyone reading these reports by using a simple test before deciding to buy after such a huge increase.

I think most economist agree that a gradual, modest increase over a longer period of time is welcomed over a brief, record-breaking increase in sale prices. When prices rise faster than the majority can afford, I see a time to be prudent in making "buying" decisions. No one really wants Singapore market to go down but the reports are not being kind. This recent report is just the first one to go easy and they use numbers to back up their claims. How the actual buyers ares feeling about the market is just as important as the number you may produce. Much like in Las Vegas, the amount of buyers are slowing and dwindling. Though I heard the same in Las Vegas before the downward slide, "Singapore is different and they can handle a loss" I believe the signs are there to be wary.

In the report by Citi, they sited that not all project will be built as previously projected. There was a potential of 30,000 units coming onto the market by 2010. Citi's report now says that only 60% will be release onto the market. Because developers have decided to hold back project is a sign that the market is not very strong. Buyers see it as well because new release are not as quickly taken up. Citi's projections include a 20 to 30% loss in value. Others have projected higher losses in the Singapore property market. The average investor that came in with their recent en bloc gains will not weather a 20-30 % or more drop. This is why I say go back to basics before you buy and take all projections into your purchase.

Going back to the basic evaluation of the property is key. Location, Location, Location is often heard but does the novice buyer really take this to heart. A novice buyer being one who has made only a few transaction like his own home and maybe one or two investments. During the run up and eventual peak in both Singapore and Las Vegas, We saw a doubling and tripling of the amount of investors in the market. The market by sheer force took care of those investors with little knowledge. What is really scary is that I run into investors here that are just getting into the market. They heard that a friend of a friend made a lot of money by buying a unit. Sorry to say that that time has come and gone as quickly as it shot up to it's peak.

First, You must see the location of any property you're considering buying so while you are looking at the model, or showflat, Go and see where the unit will be located. Check for what is happen there. Check local shopping during the day and night and weekends. Are commercial business moving into the area as well. Are the restaurants full or empty? Also check traffic flow.
I know of unit here in Singapore that is near little India that may become a traffic nightmare for it's residents. It is adding a second entry point and exit point but on the weekend these streets are packed with pedestrians. Thank goodness for a the MRT.

Second, evaluate the rest of your criteria with regards to the purchase. These items include price, future growth, current trends, Rate of return, and anything else you can think of. During a peaking market, these areas overrode many decisions but now that the market is in Plateau stage, some of these gains may disappear.

My final thoughts are if you have a property that you need to sell then unload it as quickly as possible at a very attractive price. Better to lose 10% now then wait to see who's projections will be right in the future. If you can't sell then get a renter in there at the best and longest lease as possible. Because when even 60% of 30,000 units come onto the rental pool that will force down the rents.

Lost and Found


It has been over 5 months since I posted on this blog. It is not that I did not think about doing it but what I found myself doing is dealing day to day with my new environment. I can honestly tell you that the emotional roller coaster that you can experience while being an Expat can be life altering.

HR Professionals take note that if you don't prepare your expats for more than just finding them a place to stay and good schools for their children, they may not succeed at their assignment. I know that is a broad statement but I will speak more on this in the future.

Updates:

I have been working with a few real estate agents here in Singapore but mainly doing rentals as it is a segment of the market that seems to always have action.

I just attended my first Singapore Property Auction. More to come on this in future posts.

I realize that eventhough there is no licensing for Real Estate Agents here in Singapore, there are agents that handle in a month the same amount real estate value that Las Vegas agents handle in a year.

Singapore is ranked in the top 10 many recent rankings by Mastercard.

I think this will do for now. If you have any thoughts on the Las Vegas RE market or Singapore Real Estate Market then please contact me.

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Singapore Arrivals



Our flight from Las Vegas to Singapore went by with the speed of a slow moving truck driver on his last batch of "no-doz" The final list of things to do before we left piled up to a point that I feared not being able to meet our plane on time. Past experience told us though our original flight was 8:45 am, it was wise to get there early and try to board the 7:30 am flight to LA. Luck was with us because the 8:45 am flight had been changed to 10:30 am and they wanted us on the earlier flight anyway.

Our Plane was new and each of our seats had the individual video monitor. We traveled from Las Vegas to LAX to Tokyo then on to Singapore- totalling over 20 hours of travel time. You have to hand it to the foreign air carriers, they tend to have great service and all the entertainment to help make this long flight bearable. I can tell you horror tales of my last experience with United but is was free so had to be done. So the advice today is don't just shop price for around the world trips, seek service and comfort. There is nothing worse then having to beg for water at 30,000 feet in the air.

Lets talk Airports for a second. Have you ever noticed the difference between most US airports and major airports around the world. With the exception of San Francisco and some of the others that I have not traveled to, many of the airports in the U.S. seem to be lacking in the cleaning area. I am amazed at how clean the escalators and people movers our in Japan and Singapore. I believe the term is Virtually spotless. I can't say the same for LAX. The U.S. does have some of busiest airports in the world but boy our image could use a little sprucing up. It also wouldn't hurt if some of the people working in LA would drop the attitude and be a little more courteous to people(customers) using their facilities. I am not talking about TSA people but those in the lounge areas or there providing directions.

Our excitement was mixed with the blur of being half exhausted as we landed in Singapore. We were welcomed by our Sister Aline and of course a little Singapore rain. With four large bags and two carry-on bags, thank goodness for a large van brought by another family member, Warren. Once we arrived at our close friend house, PG showed us where to drop our bags. Being that it was after midnight and we had finished with hugs and greetings, the subject turned to a main Singapore pastime, "Eating"

We had past a 24 hr outdoor noodle house just a few minutes walk from PG's house. So we grabbed a few umbrellas and set out to get a late night supper. The area we are staying at is very quaint in that most of the homes are 3 and 4 story mid-rises. Lots of lush large trees and vegetation towering throughout the outsides of the buildings, like the buildings were placed in open areas of the plant life. Did I mention that PG's home is a "Walk up" Flat? No lift!!! And we had 4 large, HEAVY, bags and two carry-on bags. No wonder I felt a twinge of hunger at 12:30 am. Not so bad after you catch your second wind and take deep breaths.

The first thing you notice at this 24hr noodle shop is that it is outdoors but under cover. The rain had moved to a drizzle as we walked but picked up after we finished eating. Every table was full except one and lots of good smells came from the open kitchen area. Jenny and I sat down as Aline and Warren placed our order with young chap looking a little wet from the local humidity or maybe it was because they were busy. There was over twenty people slurping noodles, soup and hot tea. We just added four more to their count. Within two minutes our four bowls of noodles and our big bowl of veggie soup was placed on our table. The steam rose from every item. Though it rained it is not cold by Las Vegas winter standards. I left wearing a coat in Las Vegas but wore short sleeves as we ate our quick served supper. Short of describing each bite, it tasted great. I would say it would compare to a home cooked meal but without the mess of clean up. In Singapore, these shops are everywhere and are the "fast foods" of the neighborhoods. There are the McDonald's and even a Burger King right when we came out of the airport but the difference is that the food was real good and we all ate for under $9 U.S. total.

A short walk back, another thing that is not done too much in Vegas, and we are ready to say goodnight. Through the haze of being tired and our excitement, I wonder what we will miss first from Las Vegas.

We have lots to do and many people to meet to work on our Real Estate Plans.

Monday, January 7, 2008

Removing the Clutter when relocating


I have sent so many postcards out to clients during the spring to announce the time to do spring cleaning. I wish I had sent a few to myself. I really didn't think we had too much extra stuff but boy was I wrong.


As a Realtor dealing with relocating clients, keep in mind the mountain of things that they had to do. Now they might have a service that is provided by their company but even with a service they may be distracted or concerned about the whole process. Ask them where they are at in the process. If your are showing homes or rentals to a client, they will really appreciate the attention to their struggles in relocating. You may not have to offer a solution but you may just be a ear to listen.




Here is some of the things that I had struggles with and where I found some relief.






  1. Determine what you are taking and what is staying. How much do you want to store if you are not keeping a residence in your current location?


  2. Contact local charities early on in the process for those items you want to donate. Sometimes the charities will not take your items. So call early!!!


  3. In some cities, Craigslist is a lifesaver. If you are trying to sell items like furniture or office equipment then it is highly effective. Remember just like selling a home, Price is a factor. I even looked in Singapore to see if they use Craigslist and they do. So I may be getting some items I need that way.


  4. Are your clients relocating a pet? This could add considerable frustration to your clients move. Some countries have specific rules regarding pets. We are bringing a cat to Singapore and they require health checks, tracking chips installed and a 30 day quarantine period. I only thought that bring my cat on the plane was the only worry.


  5. If your clients are trying to get rid of a lot of items and they can't sell them, encourage them to call friends, family, co-workers, and church. We found a lot of help from these people.


Now these are not all the struggles we have had but I decided not to rail on the cox cable company or local cleaning companies that failed to even show up for their schedule appointments. Ask me and I will tell you but you may just shudder with fear when you hear how some people do business.



I would like to thank our family in the US, from Mom to our Sister Germaine, for all the help they provided. And especially our friends George and Mary for being a huge relief.


As we finish the last of the items before we go, we now realize that we had way too much stuff. I challenge anyone reading this if you have a garage or storage area that you have boxes that you haven't opened since the last time you moved, its time to let go. Don't take spring cleaning for granted. And remember to donate, your junk may be someones treasures.


NEXT STOP--SINGAPORE!!!