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Saturday, November 29, 2008

Recent Headlines--What Do They Mean?


US commercial property sales to fall 70%
(SEATTLE) The value of US commercial real estate sales this year will fall to US$142 billion, 70 per cent less than last year's record US$467 billion, as the economy slows and borrowing costs rise, according to Reis Inc, a New York-based real estate research firm
Occupancy costs fall in S'pore: CBRE
(SINGAPORE) The republic is still one of the most expensive places in the world to do business in, even though office occupancy costs here have dropped, the latest survey by CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) shows.
New York home prices see steep decline
(NEW YORK) The economic crisis is finally crashing New York's real estate party, forcing the city's residents to start sharing the rest of the country's pain.
HK's mortgage loans drop 40% in October
(HONG KONG) Hong Kong mortgage loans fell for a third month in October as banks tightened lending amid an economic slowdown and a freeze in global credit.
Frankfurt office property market seen softening
(FRANKFURT) The office property market in Frankfurt, Germany's banking capital, looks set to soften but is likely to hold up better than London, Europe's top financial centre, mainly because fewer bankers are losing their jobs.
Abu Dhabi moves to revive housing market
(ABU DHABI) Abu Dhabi deepened efforts to stave off economic damage from the credit crisis yesterday, launching a government- backed lender to revive the housing market as major Dubai developers were reported to halt sales.
Sellers slash asking prices for homes in UK
(LONDON) Increasingly desperate sellers slashed asking prices for homes in England and Wales by 2.9 per cent in November, pushing them 7.1 per cent below their level a year ago, a survey showed yesterday.
More steps to stimulate China market on the cards
(BEIJING) China is likely to roll out more measures before long to stimulate demand for housing, but recovery in the all-important property market is unlikely for another year.

The financial melt down that started as a ripple in the US has roared across the oceans to all parts. What does this mean? Are we near the bottom? How long will this last?

Meaning is very straight forward. We are all reaping a whirlwind of hurt that was the result of blind profit taking. The following analogy came to mind. Picture the Hoover Dam and several people at different parts of the dam. This Hoover Dam is not made of stone but is made of Gold. Each person there is picking at the dam with glee as large chunks come off. Even when water starts to come out the people just move to other areas. Well, you can guess what happens.

Now that the water is flooding and drowning some, everyone is complaining about what has occurred. Each person that was on the dam is blaming the guy with the biggest shovel---the US.

How long is this going to last? This is the Great Depression of our time. We may not experience long lines of people without jobs, waiting to get food but the younger generation will be talking about the devastation this melt down has caused. Just like my grandmother who lived through the depression, she never ate rice as an adult. Mainly because as a child she only had rice to eat so she hated it as an adult. We may see things turn around when people start to feel safe again. My guess is about 2 or more years. In some areas it could be longer.

Are we at the bottom? Is it much farther now? Not far now. We are closer to the bottom then we are to the top. I wonder how this will affect how we look at the world in 5 years or 10 years.
Lets say we are at the bottom now. Is that good? Does it take a severe problem for us to remember it longer than a few months. 9-11 is now a distant memory even as India is battle their own terrorist attack in Mumbai. I bet there is a sign of relief in the US that is not them but the wounds have scarred over from 9-11 and we soon put it behind us. If we manage to get out of this financial hole, do we soon forget as our refrigerator is filled and our car has a full tank of gas?

Human nature is a survival instinct.

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