Industrial Property Costs Move Singapore into 5th Place

A Business Times Article reported "SINGAPORE has emerged as the world's fifth most expensive location for industrial property occupancy costs in the latest 2009 ranking by Cushman & Wakefield, up from 12th position in the 2008 ranking"

The article quoted Cushman & Wakefield Singapore managing director Donald Han saying: 'Singapore's rise up the world ranking is partly due to countries which used to be more costly moving down. In terms of rental growth, Singapore remained stable in 2008.

The article noted that Singapore's economy is export driven so forecast for he next 12 months is a dramatic reduction in demand. This reduction will no doubtly effect costs.

The next 9 to 12 months will definitely be something to watch in all segments of the property market. Articles in the past have sited take rates as steady but near the mid part of 2009 there will be several projects that will be releasing their units to their buyers which in turn will flood the market with rentals and sales. Keep your eyes open, the deals are coming!!!

Why Come to Singapore-- Few More Reasons:

Creative buzz at Mediapolis - Emilyn Yap reported that Mediapolis will be the Centre for interactive digital media, computer-generated imagery, games, and animation and more. Not due until 2020, IMAGINE flashing billboards, colourful media screens, film shootings on the streets and red carpet activities galore. This is not downtown Manhattan nor Tokyo but Singapore. Mediapolis will be a self-contained media ecosystem comprising sound stages with green screen capabilities, digital production and broadcast facilities and media schools. "I can't wait because we may be able to see some of the 'great' local broadcasts done with the latest technology" RP
Global media giants such as Lucasfilm, Linden Lab, EA, Ubisoft and Rainbow SpA have also set foot here.


Singapore Among the top in tourism
Improvements in areas like infocomms, infrastructure help it rise six places in WEF report
By Lim Wei Chean - There is no doubt that as Singapore seeks to improve it's nation in all areas, more and more people will come to visit. This will be vital in keeping businesses coming and the population on the increase. Because Singapore has the innate urge to be the best, I don't see any let in the future.

Recent Headlines Here in Singapore

Mohamed Sultan Road building sold for $35.8m- A member of the family that developed International Plaza has used his company to buy the freehold Le Mercier House on Mohamed Sultan Road. It is reported by the Business times here in Singapore. The buyer's company also owns the building right next door. Analyst quoted in the article say
hat the $35.8 million sale price works out to about $900 per square foot per plot ratio based on a 2.8 plot ratio - hence a maximum GFA of about 39,000 sq ft.

Savills pre-tax profit slides 61% to £33.2m- It is reported by the Business Times that
The London-listed agent, which has more than 200 offices and affiliates worldwide, said that a collapse in real estate transaction volumes had forced it to recommend a reduced final dividend of 3 pence per share, slashing its full 2008 dividend to 9 pence versus 18 pence in 2007. Lack of inventory is also contributing to the drop in profit. Many property on the market are the distressed variety but as these go the consumers that can are thinking they should hold onto their homes instead of selling.

In the new US property market, old guys are hot- Out of New York the reports are experienced but retired agents are coming back to the front in property selling. Many of the property specialist that currently practice real estate have never dealt with a declining market so these veterans of past crisis will be the go to agents for a while. Business Times

I still can't get it out of my head that if anyone has cash that they don't need currently to live on, should look into investing into a long term property investment vehicle. It would be tragic to have this type of crisis occur in the near future but all past records indicate that it should not happen again at least in our lifetime. Opportunity is Knocking!!!!

Comment on "Don't Buy, Don't Sell"

Photo by R. Phipps Copyrighted all rights reserved





Read the article yourself and then you can decide for yourself if I am close to being right
http://www.straitstimes.com/Money/Story/STIStory_311033.html

Though I have not agree very often to the Straits Times since my arrival, when it occurs I have to make it a big deal.

Today is not that day. Yes this report had a lot to say about when to invest and when not to invest but where were these experts about 6 to 8 months ago? Hind sight is 20/20 is the quote that comes to mind.

My thoughts about investing in real estate are simple. If you have money to invest right now then look for the right deals. First look for the right Location then check the Location again then leave and come back and take a look at the Location again. Once you see it is in the right location then start thinking about the purchase.

Do you want to know where to buy? Send me an email and I will tell you. There are some great deals for those investors coming in the next few months. Times like this only come around about every 20 to 30 years.

Signs Singapore Property Market is Slowing

(Singapore) In a recent article by the Business Times published in Singapore, signs of Singapore's slowing property market are evident. With research by URA and DTZ Research, third quarters numbers reflect a continued slow down. A slide in sub-sales and foreign buyers are the first two signs noted. The third sign is the rise in HDB upgraders.

A couple of areas to clarify before we forward: HDB is the Housing Development Board who offers below market homes (condos) to Singapore Citizens and permanent residents. This attributes to Singapore's high home ownership. The URA is the government agency called Urban Redevelopment Authority. They track sales and do most of the planning for growth in Singapore. DTZ is a property consultancy.

DTZ's analysis of caveats for private home purchases shows that total sub-sales of non-landed private homes fell 8 percent to 473 units in Q3 from the previous quarter. Sub sales also accounted for a smaller 13 percent share of purchases of non-landed private homes in Q3, compared with 16 per cent in Q2.

Sub sales of high-end condos/apartments slowed down even more in Q3 2008. The number of sub sale purchases involving units priced at least $1,000 psf fell 24.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter to only 213 transactions, accounting for 45 per cent of overall sub sales of non-landed private homes in Q3, against 54 per cent in Q2 2008.

The number of foreign buyers (including permanent residents) of private homes (both landed and non-landed) slid 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to 903 in Q3. Also, these buyers made up 22 per cent of total private home deals in the quarter, down from 25 per cent in Q2.

Some of the central areas who experienced strong sales throughout the last year and a half saw continued lower numbers. The Sail at Marina Bay got the strongest subsale interest in Q3, with 30 deals (compared with 34 in Q2). The median subsale price for the project slid 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $1,719 psf, following a 14 per cent slide in Q2.
Median subsale prices also fell 3 per cent for Park Infinia at Wee Nam to $1,380 psf, The Esta (slipping 5 per cent to $910 psf) and City Square Residences (down 6 per cent to $960 psf).

The article does a good job giving us the figures but it fails to adequate job of spelling out future trends. It glosses over that it will continue slides but there will be pockets where the numbers will spike. Investors need to be aware that these numbers really give us an indication of what is to come. The trends take about six months to work their way into the buying and selling of property. So I will bet my last dollar, not worth that much these days, that the numbers will be considerably worse by Q2 of 2009. Two steps forward and three steps back for the information forecasting. When the paper relies on an agency (DTZ) for it commentary then of course they will protect their current production. Please disagree with me as I have been watching the trends for three years and it seems to be deeper than every in this hole.

Recent Headlines--What Do They Mean?

US commercial property sales to fall 70%
(SEATTLE) The value of US commercial real estate sales this year will fall to US$142 billion, 70 per cent less than last year's record US$467 billion, as the economy slows and borrowing costs rise, according to Reis Inc, a New York-based real estate research firm
Occupancy costs fall in S'pore: CBRE
(SINGAPORE) The republic is still one of the most expensive places in the world to do business in, even though office occupancy costs here have dropped, the latest survey by CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) shows.
New York home prices see steep decline
(NEW YORK) The economic crisis is finally crashing New York's real estate party, forcing the city's residents to start sharing the rest of the country's pain.
HK's mortgage loans drop 40% in October
(HONG KONG) Hong Kong mortgage loans fell for a third month in October as banks tightened lending amid an economic slowdown and a freeze in global credit.
Frankfurt office property market seen softening
(FRANKFURT) The office property market in Frankfurt, Germany's banking capital, looks set to soften but is likely to hold up better than London, Europe's top financial centre, mainly because fewer bankers are losing their jobs.
Abu Dhabi moves to revive housing market
(ABU DHABI) Abu Dhabi deepened efforts to stave off economic damage from the credit crisis yesterday, launching a government- backed lender to revive the housing market as major Dubai developers were reported to halt sales.
Sellers slash asking prices for homes in UK
(LONDON) Increasingly desperate sellers slashed asking prices for homes in England and Wales by 2.9 per cent in November, pushing them 7.1 per cent below their level a year ago, a survey showed yesterday.
More steps to stimulate China market on the cards
(BEIJING) China is likely to roll out more measures before long to stimulate demand for housing, but recovery in the all-important property market is unlikely for another year.

The financial melt down that started as a ripple in the US has roared across the oceans to all parts. What does this mean? Are we near the bottom? How long will this last?

Meaning is very straight forward. We are all reaping a whirlwind of hurt that was the result of blind profit taking. The following analogy came to mind. Picture the Hoover Dam and several people at different parts of the dam. This Hoover Dam is not made of stone but is made of Gold. Each person there is picking at the dam with glee as large chunks come off. Even when water starts to come out the people just move to other areas. Well, you can guess what happens.

Now that the water is flooding and drowning some, everyone is complaining about what has occurred. Each person that was on the dam is blaming the guy with the biggest shovel---the US.

How long is this going to last? This is the Great Depression of our time. We may not experience long lines of people without jobs, waiting to get food but the younger generation will be talking about the devastation this melt down has caused. Just like my grandmother who lived through the depression, she never ate rice as an adult. Mainly because as a child she only had rice to eat so she hated it as an adult. We may see things turn around when people start to feel safe again. My guess is about 2 or more years. In some areas it could be longer.

Are we at the bottom? Is it much farther now? Not far now. We are closer to the bottom then we are to the top. I wonder how this will affect how we look at the world in 5 years or 10 years.
Lets say we are at the bottom now. Is that good? Does it take a severe problem for us to remember it longer than a few months. 9-11 is now a distant memory even as India is battle their own terrorist attack in Mumbai. I bet there is a sign of relief in the US that is not them but the wounds have scarred over from 9-11 and we soon put it behind us. If we manage to get out of this financial hole, do we soon forget as our refrigerator is filled and our car has a full tank of gas?

Human nature is a survival instinct.

Is this the End? Singapore Property Going Down?

Singapore property prices are headed down. Since I arrived in Jan 08, I saw signs that indicated that the market had gone through the same steep climb that the US market had gone through. Singapore developers sold whole projects within hours of launching. Buyers were on fire and sellers were salivating.

For the past few years Singapore property market mirrored the market increase the US experienced in all its' major cities during 2003 to 2006. Here the real climb began at the end of 2005 and continued until end of 2007.

When I arrived in January 2008, I spoke to several agents who would tell me that the Singapore market could never be affected by a downturn in the US. Well, eleven months passed and two declining quarterly reports later, we finally get the following report from the Straits Times. Read and please comment:

Source: Straits Times
Nov 27, 2008

Mah sees softening of property prices
Future movements will depend on how industry adjusts to conditions
By Michelle Tay

PROPERTY prices will inevitably soften and demand will weaken amid slower economic growth, National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said yesterday.
Private housing prices fell 2.4 per cent in the third quarter, and further price movements will 'depend on the severity of the economic slowdown'.
Mr Mah was speaking at the 49th anniversary dinner of the Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (Redas) at the Shangri-La Hotel.
He said future price movements will also depend on the 'ability of the industry to make adjustments in response to the changes in economic conditions'.
Meanwhile, Mr Simon Cheong, Redas president and chief executive of upscale residential developer SC Global Developments, said he expects construction prices to ease off with the trend of falling oil prices and easing inflation.
'Current pressure on construction services (will) begin to moderate once the lag in demand kicks in with a slowdown in new commitments by developers,' he said.
Mr Mah also addressed recent moves by Redas to present market analysts with other sources of market data after they had drawn bearish conclusions about the industry recently.
Redas had said the analysts' findings were based on official numbers from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), which they felt are too general. Reports said the industry body met property analysts from local and foreign research firms two weeks ago to advise them that URA data may not give an accurate picture of specific sections of the market.
Mr Mah said the Government has a vital role in guarding against 'irrational market behaviour, such as excessive speculation, that is not in sync with economic fundamentals', to ensure the long-term stability and smooth functioning of the property market.
Mr Cheong agreed: 'The market is at best currently fragile and nervous. Market stability is important to prevent a widespread decimation of asset values...Redas will do its best to work closely with the Government to provide timely market feedback to facilitate a timely and effective response that the property market needs.'
But there are limits to what the Government can and should do, said Mr Mah. For one thing, it cannot work against market forces and try to prop up property prices artificially.
Mr Mah explained: 'Such efforts are not sustainable and will not be beneficial to the health of the property market in the long run. Any measure seen to be knee-jerk or excessive might even weigh market sentiment down further...It is in our interest to ensure that the property prices move in line with economic fundamentals as it affects home ownership, asset values, retirement savings and other sectors of the economy.'
But Mr Cheong said: 'Only with confidence will demand return to the market.' He advised Redas members to 'take this opportunity to do our house cleaning, improve our product and get ready for the next upturn'.
'Pricing alone does not lead to sales volume. Sentiment and confidence lead to sales volume.'
michtay@sph.com.sg
ON GUARD
'We cannot work against market forces and try to prop up property prices artificially...It is in our interest to ensure that the property prices move in line with economic fundamentals as it affects home ownership, asset values, retirement savings and other sectors of the economy.'
Minister Mah Bow Tan

Global Business in Real Estate

CULTURALLY CORRECT
Words Matter
In early November media outlets worldwide, including the Associated Press and BBC News, reported on the Bournemouth Council's "plain language" policy, which lists 19 Latin words and phrases to be avoided in official documents, e.g., bona fide or ad hoc, and suggested replacements to minimize confusion. Bournemouth is a town of 170,000 on England's south coast. The news was reported as a "ban," riling language aficionados outraged by what was equated by some as "the linguistic equivalent of ethnic cleansing." The Bouremouth Council countered inaccurate reporting, stating there had been no "banning" of words or phrases; only advice to staff to encourage "plain, appropriate and easily understood language." Much ado about nothing? Perhaps not. There's a lesson here for REALTORS® working with buyers and sellers for whom English is not a first language. Review your contracts to identify words and phrases that may not be easily understood. If appropriate, change them to be more clear. If legal council requires the language to remain as is, develop a "reader's guide" to the contract to spell out more clear definitions and/or to provide examples for key terms. If you deal frequently with customers speaking one or two languages other than English, have your contracts professionally translated.


Vietnam: A Market to Watch


In May Vietnam's government passed a resolution (effective January 1, 2009) that permits foreign individuals and organizations who invest directly in the country and those hired as executives by Vietnamese or foreign-invested enterprises to purchase and own apartments in Vietnam. The legislation will be implemented on a trial basis for five years. Read about specific opportunities and limitations of the law. Many Americans know little about this country beyond war images from the 1960s and 1970s. In 2005 NAR published an article on the Vietnamese real estate market that highlights the dramatic changes in the market economy since the Vietnam War. Even since the 2005 article, the country has attracted significant foreign investment. The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) reports a GDP growth rate of 8.23% in 2006 and 8.4% in 2007. While not immune to the current economic crisis and realizing a slowed growth rate for 2008 with GDP projected at 6.5 - 7%, MPI projects a stabilizing economy in 2009 and to regain growth impetus in 2010. REALTORS® working with investors with an eye on Asia will have greater opportunities come January 1. Learn more about this growing market, including tips for conducting business.

Source: NAR International Newsletter

International Real Estate Investment News

FOREIGN INVESTMENT
Buying into the USA
The combination of tighter immigration standards and an excess of real estate inventory provides a win-win opportunity for the United States and for individuals seeking to immigrate here. US-Immigration-Explained.com reports a recent increase in L-1 and E-2 visa inquiries; two options for U.S. immigration related to investments. The E-2 visa pertains to persons involved in non-import/export investments, including real estate. As there is no dollar limit (although there are strict requirements), the E-2 visa provides opportunities for those able to make an investment of as little as $100,000. The L-1 visa requires one to invest in a branch, subsidiary, or affiliate of their company. The main requirement, therefore, is that the foreign person must have owned or been a manager, executive, or person with specialized knowledge of a firm abroad. (A third, the EB5, has dropped in popularity as it requires an investment of half million plus hiring requirements, which is less attractive in the current economy.) Foreigners with the resources and the desire are investing their much-needed equity into U.S. real estate and, in turn, obtaining investor visas. Overall, this may be very good for the U.S. Outside investment in the real estate market will remove excess inventory from the markets, causing the demand-supply curve to favor higher prices and a return to higher valuations.

Finally, Singapore May See The Problems it....

On Thursday, July 24th, An article was publish in a local paper called Today. (Goto http://www.todayonline.com/pdf_main.asp?pubdate=20080724 ) The title of the article was "Oversupply Worse than Expected?" by Colin Tan.   Colin is head of research at Chesterton International .  And by far the bravest person to write anything about the possible Bubble in Singapore. 

I have been in Singapore since Jan 08 and I saw many of the same signs that my recent home of Las Vegas had shown.  Relatively quite prices and growth with the occasional twitch of something new would get hearts racing a bit.  Then all of a sudden, Boom, Bang and a Pop!!!, the lines started to form at builders.  They started to say they were sold out and had to make more.  People started to hear stories of their friend who just sold their home 10k above what they had asked for because two buyers came at the same time.  In rapid succession the lines double then triple and so did the asking price.  I once look at a home in the Southwest part of Las Vegas that was small with no yard.  They were asking $95 psf (per sq ft).  I thought it was high but during the Frenzy that same home went to $225 psf.  With current loans parameters, I could no longer buy a home.  Thank goodness the Banks thought of new inventive ways to lend money. (this is sarcasm for those who don't know me)

Singapore went through this same period but by my calculation and divinations, their wave started about a year and a half to two years after Las Vegas.  So what am I trying to say.....( dramatic pause insert music from your own memories)... "Singapore's Bubble is Coming".  I spoke to many agents here that all say the Singapore is different and I hope they are right.  But now I have some support.  Thank you Colin Tan.  How far will it drop?  We can only guess at this point, but all the signs are there.  I have seen the problems that arose in many areas of Las Vegas.  I can only hope there won't be the same carnage here in Singapore.

Singapore Property Market

Yesterday, in the Straits Times, an article appeared discussing a new report by "Citi" that is saying the over supply reported by others will not happen. Basically, I would caution anyone reading these reports by using a simple test before deciding to buy after such a huge increase.

I think most economist agree that a gradual, modest increase over a longer period of time is welcomed over a brief, record-breaking increase in sale prices. When prices rise faster than the majority can afford, I see a time to be prudent in making "buying" decisions. No one really wants Singapore market to go down but the reports are not being kind. This recent report is just the first one to go easy and they use numbers to back up their claims. How the actual buyers ares feeling about the market is just as important as the number you may produce. Much like in Las Vegas, the amount of buyers are slowing and dwindling. Though I heard the same in Las Vegas before the downward slide, "Singapore is different and they can handle a loss" I believe the signs are there to be wary.

In the report by Citi, they sited that not all project will be built as previously projected. There was a potential of 30,000 units coming onto the market by 2010. Citi's report now says that only 60% will be release onto the market. Because developers have decided to hold back project is a sign that the market is not very strong. Buyers see it as well because new release are not as quickly taken up. Citi's projections include a 20 to 30% loss in value. Others have projected higher losses in the Singapore property market. The average investor that came in with their recent en bloc gains will not weather a 20-30 % or more drop. This is why I say go back to basics before you buy and take all projections into your purchase.

Going back to the basic evaluation of the property is key. Location, Location, Location is often heard but does the novice buyer really take this to heart. A novice buyer being one who has made only a few transaction like his own home and maybe one or two investments. During the run up and eventual peak in both Singapore and Las Vegas, We saw a doubling and tripling of the amount of investors in the market. The market by sheer force took care of those investors with little knowledge. What is really scary is that I run into investors here that are just getting into the market. They heard that a friend of a friend made a lot of money by buying a unit. Sorry to say that that time has come and gone as quickly as it shot up to it's peak.

First, You must see the location of any property you're considering buying so while you are looking at the model, or showflat, Go and see where the unit will be located. Check for what is happen there. Check local shopping during the day and night and weekends. Are commercial business moving into the area as well. Are the restaurants full or empty? Also check traffic flow.
I know of unit here in Singapore that is near little India that may become a traffic nightmare for it's residents. It is adding a second entry point and exit point but on the weekend these streets are packed with pedestrians. Thank goodness for a the MRT.

Second, evaluate the rest of your criteria with regards to the purchase. These items include price, future growth, current trends, Rate of return, and anything else you can think of. During a peaking market, these areas overrode many decisions but now that the market is in Plateau stage, some of these gains may disappear.

My final thoughts are if you have a property that you need to sell then unload it as quickly as possible at a very attractive price. Better to lose 10% now then wait to see who's projections will be right in the future. If you can't sell then get a renter in there at the best and longest lease as possible. Because when even 60% of 30,000 units come onto the rental pool that will force down the rents.

Too Sick To Move?

I just can't believe my luck some times.

The last few days have been a blur. It would be happy to say that I spent the last few days doing last minute shopping for my loved ones. Or maybe I had clients that came into town that made a big purchase. I could even be satisfied with being able to go to a Christmas party here or there. But as the picture shows, I have been in bed with the flu.


The positives of sitting in bed and watching television could be lauded by most couch potatoes but with the fact that there is just a few short days left before our move and several hundred things to get done before we leave, I did not have time for this at all. For those who don't know, Jenny and I are moving to Singapore. I have told a lot of people and I get a blank stares only about half the time. You know the kind of look that someone gives you when they think you're joking or maybe they are waiting for me to add a big --NOT at the end of my announcement. The other half tend to say" that is great I'd love to visit CHINA!!!!" aargh!!! I then tend to stare at them with the blank look, longing for the NOT joke to happen. It never comes though. Most friends are happy with the opportunity that it poses. They are encouraging for the risk that we are taking. Of course there are some friends who are worried that we are making the biggest mistake of our lives. But we agree that there really isn't a mistake that can't be overcome unless it is one that ends your life. Okay on that happy note-- back to being sick.


The best thing about being sick is getting better and of course the loving care that came from my family during my down time. I could not have asked for any more attention. But besides getting attention and rest, I was able to talk about my blog with Jenny. With her suggestions, I have decided to not only talk about investing in Singapore and Las Vegas but I am also going to use this forum to describe the details of a move for an expatriate. First hand knowledge is always the best.

So as my head clears, I will post more items to describe how this major move is taking shape and how it is affecting everyone involved. Until then-- Have a Blessed Christmas.

Phipps International -Ron Phipps is a Licensed Realtor in Las Vegas, NV and a Certified International Property Specialist.